Russia’s Sanctioned Vessels: Where Do They Trade? 🌐 Impact of Iranian Attack and Seizure of MSC Aries on Six Major Carriers 🚢 U.S. Imposes Deadline on Venezuelan Oil Transactions ⏰"

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Insights 📈

Oil 🛢️

• Global oil demand to grow by 1.1 mbd next year (Link)

• Red Sea disruption and rising exports lift clean tanker demand to a record high in Q1 (Link)

• High-risk VLCCs drive Russian crude STS activity (Link)

• Jet Fuel demand is still recovering from the pandemic (Link)

Dry 🚢

• A Limited Recovery in Cargo Order Volumes for Coal Bound for India Could Signal Rising Demand (Link)

• Capesize C3 Route South Atlantic Overview Supply (Link)

• This is the Dry Bulk commodity that has been the least impacted by the Panama Canal drought (Link)

Other 🌍

• Hijacked cargo ship ABDULLAH released on the east coast of Somalia (Link)

• Russia’s data manipulation as a weapon of war (Link)

• Manipulated AIS positions were identified above the Israeli city of Eilat coinciding with the timing of the strikes against Israel (Link)

• Panama Canal Increase Booking Slots and Draft Limitations (Link)

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Where Do Russia’s Sanctioned Vessels Continue To Trade - Lloyds’s List Intelligence

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has directly sanctioned nearly 170 Russia-linked cargo-carrying vessels

Analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows how ships have been redeployed to continue trading, while others maintain regular voyages, revealing the limits of US sanctions programmes.

While many of the latest sanctioned ships are sailing typical routes, analysis of other blacklisted ships shows that sanctions implementation has limited potential trading partners.

In 2021, ships that are now sanctioned called at more than 100 non-Russian ports, including those in the EU and the US. Last year, sanctioned ships were welcome in just 24 foreign markets.

Still, in 2023 and so far this year, arrivals into foreign ports accounted for 14% of traceable callings.

Türkiye, Iran, India and Egypt have been the most common destinations for sanctioned ships.

Since 2022, 13 different sanctioned Russian ships have made 32 calls to Egypt.

Of these vessels, 11 are sanctioned for links to companies that perform various services for Russia’s Ministry of Defence, including transporting military equipment and weaponry.

These ships accounted for 29 of the 32 calls to Egypt. The vessels often call to either El Iskandariya (Alexandria) or El Dekheila from Novorossiysk.

Voyages of vessels sanctioned on April 12, 2023

This selection of sanctioned ships shows the retreat of ships to inland ports as well as those in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov and Caspian Sea. However, it also shows the ability for these ships to call at international ports. The vessels sanctioned in this round are linked to companies involved in the facilitation of sanctions evasion through transshipment

Note: Before date of sanction covers April 1, 2022 to April 11, 2023

Note: After date of sanction covers April 12, 2023 to March 19, 2024

Note: Different colours represent different vessels

Impact of the Iranian Attack and Seizure of MSC Aries on Six Major Carriers - Windward

• Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on April 13, after the Iranian regime started threatening to attack Israel on April 1, following an airstrike in Syria.

• Following Iran’s missile attack, Windward’s data regarding the containers of the six major carriers (MSC, Maersk, COSCO, CMA CGM, ONE, Hapag-Lloyd) shows a 28% increase in area visits by the six major carriers in The Cape of Good Hope when comparing April 7-13 to April 14-20, 2024. The increase comes after three weeks of decreasing  area visits to The Cape of Good Hope. This is noteworthy because The Cape of Good Hope route is often used as a detour when the Red Sea is considered too risky. 

• In addition, Windward’s data for April 7-13 showed a 600% increase in dark activities conducted by vessels of the six major carriers in the Red Sea. This marks the highest number of dark activities by these vessels since December 2023, at the height of the Houthi attacks against merchant vessels.

• It is possible that due to the seizure of the MSC Aries and the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Arabian Gulf regions, carriers are again adopting evasive measures to keep away from possibly dangerous areas and hiding their location in potentially dangerous regions as safety measures against seizures.

U.S. Imposes Deadline on Venezuelan Oil Transactions - Kpler

In a significant policy shift, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has replaced General License 44, intensifying restrictions on transactions within Venezuela's oil and gas sector. Effective April 17, 2024, American entities now face a May 31 deadline to conclude all such transactions, marking a critical moment in U.S.-Venezuela relations ahead of the forthcoming presidential election in July.

The implications of this decision resonate deeply, particularly within the realm of oil trade. Over the past six months, Venezuela has exported approximately 30 million barrels of crude to the U.S., a flow that will now be redirected to alternative trading partners like China and India, as per data from Kpler. Similarly, imports of petroleum products, traditionally dependent on the U.S., are poised to shift towards suppliers such as Russia or Iran.

Conversely, U.S. product exports, previously earmarked for Venezuela, are now set to explore new markets in countries like Mexico, Chile, and Brazil. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of global trade alliances and the constantly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Nevertheless, lingering questions persist regarding the impact of the Venezuelan oil export ban on the flow of Russian oil into the region. Recent revelations shed light on deceptive shipping practices aimed at circumventing sanctions on Russian oil.

One such instance involves the vessels LIGERA (9237072) and MARBELLA (9222455), both insured by The West of England Ship Owners Mutual Insurance Association. Previously, Marine Traffic reported on LIGERA's receipt of Russian crude oil back in January. Satellite imagery from March 5, 2024, reveals a ship-to-ship transfer of 1.1 million barrels of Russian crude oil from LIGERA to MARBELLA in the anchorage of Amuay, Venezuela.

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