Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

The Best Links

Insights 📈

• New Chapter in African Energy (link)

• Pole Star Global acquires StratumFive Group (link)

• Crackdown On Russian Oil Price Cap Breaches Begins (link)

• Beyond the reach of sanctions: shipping oil via the Northern Sea Route (link)

• Tanker market report - Back in Black? (link)

• Capesize tonne days growth from Brazil to China reaches new high (link)

• Crude tanker fundamentals signal short-term support (link)

• Demand for Russian coal dominated by shipments to China, India and the Middle East (link)

Deeper Dive 🔎

• Analyzing the Russia Risk Regime Windward

New Product 🚀

• A New Destination Model Vortexa 

• Trade Lane Analytics Gatehouse Maritime

Before we get into things, meet our new partners:

Beacon’s supply chain visibility and collaboration platform empowers organisations to achieve more efficient, reliable and sustainable supply chains.

ShipFix’s Dry Cargo Market Intelligence Solution utilizes their proprietary data from Spot Orders and Tonnage Circulars to provide users with a unique view on Supply and Demand.

Datamar have been running for 30+ and are widely considered by the Logistics industry to be the most trust worthy source of maritime trade data in South America.

Signal Ocean is powered by a blend of Artificial Intelligence technologies and patented data fusion and forecasting models. Their data engines securely process your private data, delivering customised insights that enhance decision-making, negotiation and trading.

Analyzing the Russia Risk Regime Windward

This post is an excerpt from Windward’s latest Q3 Risks Report.

Russian Oil Exports – Direct Voyages

When comparing the overall number of direct voyages from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, it's clear that the volume of Russian oil being directly exported from Russia stayed more or less the same throughout the war and the developing sanctions. While the volume stayed the same, the destinations have changed quite drastically:

U.S./EU/UK

In Q2 2023, the average number of direct Russian oil exports was 32. This number dropped by 18% during Q3 2023. It seems like the volume of Russian oil to USA/EU/UK is continuously dropping, but has not yet completely stopped, even with the advanced sanctions posed.

Middle East/India

While Q2 2023 showed an increase in direct exports, Q3 marked a decrease to both destinations – a 14% and 10% decrease to the Middle East and India respectively.

LATAM

Q3 marked a new all-time high of direct export voyages to LATAM with a 30% increase. This is interesting, as we identified this continuous increase coming from one specific country – Brazil. Since the beginning of 2023, the number of direct voyages of Russian oil to Brazil has increased by 186%.

Tanker Voyages through the Bering Straits

In Q3 2023, an interesting trend emerged of both crude oil and oil products tankers leaving Russia through the Bering Straits, to China. 

While the passage through Bering is clearly subject to seasonality, when comparing Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, there is an increase of 50% in Straits passages by tankers coming from Russia.

In addition to the overall traffic increase in the area, in 2022 there was only one such voyage from Russia to China through the Bering Straits. In Q3 of 2023 there were 10 – an increase of 900%.

Refined Oil Exports – by Origin and Destination

The data indicates that following the oil products price cap, many Western destinations imported refined oil from countries known to import Russian crude oil throughout the war:

• Refined oil exports from India to the EU increased by 100% after the oil product price cap in February 2023

• In 2023, the average monthly number of refined oil exports from Turkey increased by 29% when compared to 2022 – 50% of exports are destined to the Middle East

• Refined oil exports from Turkey to the Middle East increased by 37% after the oil products price cap in February 2023

For more information such as:

• A Deep Dive into Deceptive Shipping Practices Involving Russian Vessels 🇷🇺

• A Spotlight on Ship to Ship Operations 🚢↔️🚢

• The Latest Hubs for Dark Activities 📍

• Direct Cargo Exports from EU to Russia 🇪🇺➡️🇷🇺

• The Growth and Destinations of the Gray/Dark Fleet 📈

Use this link to download the full report: Link

Destination Model Vortexa 

This is a post by Maritime Data made from a recent Vortexa white paper, Piecing together the puzzle of the Global Energy Markets that supported the recent release of their new Destination Model.

The Challenge

Predicting a tanker's destination is not merely about data points but serves as the foundation for understanding oil and gas flows, vessel availability, and the global energy market dynamics. These predictions are vital for clients, offering them invaluable insights that help manage the complexities of the energy industry with confidence and foresight.

Volatility in Energy Markets

The energy market is subject to constant changes due to demand fluctuations, geopolitical events, regulatory updates, and even natural disasters. This volatility adds an additional layer of complexity to predicting vessel routes and schedules.

Confidentiality and Competitive Advantage

Shipping routes and schedules are usually confidential, aimed at providing energy companies with a competitive edge. This makes the task of predicting a vessel's destination even more challenging.

Dynamic Changes in Vessel Routes

Vessels often change their declared destinations mid-voyage due to new orders, usually spurred by shifts in cargo buyers. This practice is prevalent in the industry and is driven by the desire to maximize profits.

Arbitrage Opportunities

Price fluctuations in the international scope of the energy market can lead to arbitrage opportunities. A cargo initially bound for one location could be rerouted to another if a significant price differential emerges, complicating predictions further.

Technological Limitations

Technologies like the Automatic Identification System (AIS) can be unreliable, providing incomplete or noisy data. In some cases, information may be deliberately falsified, or tracking systems tampered with, to maintain secrecy or create confusion.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Considerations

Countries under international sanctions may take roundabout routes or deactivate their AIS transponders to evade scrutiny and detection, further complicating the task of prediction.

Multifaceted Logistics

The process of transporting energy can include multiple stops, transfers, and possibly interim storage, adding another layer of complexity.

The Solution

1. Data Ingestion & Augmentation

• Vortexa validates and cleans the incoming data to create a 'super-ping', a consolidated data point that captures a vessel's movement.

2. Data Enrichment and Feature Generation

• 'Super-pings' are enriched with additional details such as vessel history and fixtures (agreements between charterers and shipowners).

• Manual adjustments, known as 'overrides', are incorporated into the models, adding a layer of human expertise.

• The data is transformed into a normalized numerical vector, using techniques such as Natural Language Processing (NLP) and one-hot encoding.

3. The Destination Model Pipelines

• The data undergoes further enrichment and then serves as input for predictive modeling.

• The pipelines for training the model and making inferences are closely aligned to ensure consistency.

4. Neural Network Modelling

• Neural Networks (NNs) form the core of the predictive model, designed to simulate human brain functions.

• The NNs employ layers of interconnected nodes to process information, and their weights are adjusted through a process called backpropagation.

5. Evaluation

• The model is evaluated based on three main criteria: Accuracy, Coverage, and Volatility.

• Once evaluated, models are versioned and stored for reproducibility.

6. Final Output

• The model produces a probability distribution that represents the likelihood of a vessel heading to specific ports or STS zones.

• To make these predictions more comprehensible, the probabilities are aggregated on a per-vector basis.

7. ETA Prediction

• Once a prediction is generated, it is enriched with an Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) using a separate, battle-tested service.

• For fine-tuning the ETA prediction, another model that predicts port congestion and potential delays is leveraged.

Through this comprehensive approach, Vortexa aims to provide a solution that is technologically advanced, accurate, and reliable, while also being deeply rooted in industry expertise.

For more details + segments we didn’t cover in our summary such as:

• How the industry currently approaches this challenge

• The results they have seen from the upgrade

• A look to future work

Use this link to download the full white paper: Link 

Trade Lane Analytics Gatehouse Maritime

A post by Gatehouse Maritime

TEASER: Trade Lane Analytics- A new product from GateHouse Maritime for monitoring carrier performance.

‘Your carrier is leaving with a delay (again) and only half of your booked containers are making it to the vessel’. This is not the first time you have heard this.

What if we tell you that there is a way of seeing how your selected ocean carrier performs on your trade lane compared to the others? That is Trade Lane Analytics by GateHouse Maritime, available from November 2023 through REST API.

Stay tuned for more!

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Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

[email protected]