Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The objective of the newsletter is to provide you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the MDAI network.

In this week’s edition:

• Key Themes in the Shifting Supply Chains and Trade Flows with Lloyd’s List

• Breaking the price cap with Poten and Partners

• Dawn-to-dusk imagery collection reveals rapid pace of construction for China’s second off-shore strategic naval port with BlackSky

• Russian Crude Market Update + Upcoming Market innovation series with Vortexa

• Tracking iron ore: focus on supply from Western Australia with Maritrace 

• The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch initiative to help companies in Supply Chain to test 3 market leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions

Key Themes in the Shifting Supply Chains and Trade Flows

Following the publication of one of Lloyd's List’s flagship pieces of annual content Top 100 Ports, APAC Editor, Cichen Sen made some interesting discoveries about shipping traffic between global container ports in 2021-2022 and how this illustrates some significant shifts in global supply chains and trade flows

1. Changes in Port Calls:

• The number of direct calls from China to the US decreased by 17% in 2022 compared to 2021, reflecting shifts in transpacific trade volumes and supply chain reconfiguration.

• China's successful zero-Covid strategy in 2021 led to the return of overseas orders to its factories, but the emergence of the Omicron variant in 2022 reversed this trend.

2. "China Plus One" Strategy:

• As companies reconsidered reliance solely on China as the world's factory, they adopted a "China plus one" strategy, resulting in a 23% increase in direct port calls from China to Vietnam in 2022.

• Vietnam's growing exports to the West and increasing purchasing power contributed to its attractiveness as an alternative manufacturing destination.

3. Mexico's Benefit from China-US Rivalry:

• Mexico experienced a 14% increase in direct port calls from China in 2022 due to its role as a crucial path for "Made in China" products to bypass tariffs and enter the US market.

• China's foreign direct investment in Mexico has grown significantly, focused on industries exporting to the US.

4. Russia as a Positive Development for Chinese Manufacturers:

• China's exports to Russia in 2022 increased by 12.8% compared to 2021, and the number of direct port calls from China to Russia surged by 88%.

• Russia's Far East ports, such as Vladivostok, gained access to China's domestic transshipment trade, boosting trade volumes between the two countries.

5. China's Resilience as a Manufacturing Hub:

• Despite some shifts in supply chains, China is expected to remain a key manufacturing hub due to its solid supply network and capabilities.

• Certain industries, like the semiconductor sector, may face challenges due to geopolitical restrictions, while others, such as lithium-ion batteries and new energy vehicles, will likely continue to thrive.

6. Investor Caution and Opportunities:

• Geopolitical risks have made foreign investors cautious about investing in China, leading to reduced foreign interest in Chinese ports.

• Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa present attractive investment opportunities, with Vietnam standing out as a key player in the "reglobalization" process.

• Investment opportunities are arising in ports and logistics in these regions, attracting interest from companies like MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company and PSA International.

7. Derisking Rather than Decoupling:

• The world economy's reconfiguration requires a derisking approach, as a full-scale decoupling from China is not feasible.

• Businesses are adopting a "segmented or clustered relocation" strategy, relocating certain operations or industries based on various factors.

In conclusion, the shifting supply chains and trade flows are driven by a combination of short-term disruptions and long-term strategic considerations. While China remains a crucial manufacturing hub, other regions are gaining significance, leading to new investment opportunities in diverse markets. The key to navigating this landscape is adopting a cautious but strategic approach to derisk supply chains and explore emerging markets.

Breaking the price cap

A summary of a recent post by the Tankers Research and Consultancy department Poten and Partners

Are owners leaving the Russian crude export trade?

1. G7 Crude Oil Price Cap: In December 2022, the G7 introduced a crude oil price cap of $60/barrel on Russian oil exports as a punishment for their invasion of Ukraine. The cap limited the involvement of marine service providers from G7 and EU countries in the Russian crude oil trade.

2. Western Owners Avoiding Russian Far East Trade: Since the price cap was set, oil prices in the Russian Far East have consistently exceeded $60/barrel. This led western owners to mostly avoid this trade, as they were restricted by the price cap.

3. Continued Trade in Western Ports: The price of Urals, the benchmark Russian crude mostly shipped from the Baltic and the Black Sea, remained mostly below the price cap, allowing some Western shipping companies (especially private Greek Aframax and Suezmax owners) to continue moving Russian barrels.

   

4. Changing Trade Flows: Russian trade flows shifted as Western countries and companies stopped buying Russian crude. Russia increased exports to India, China, and Turkey, boosting demand for Aframaxes and Suezmaxes due to the limitations on Russian ports for VLCCs.

   

5. Concentration of Shipowners: The Russian crude export trade from Western ports involved over 100 shipowners, but the business was highly concentrated. The top 10 owners accounted for over 50% of all voyages, while the rest did only a few each.

6. Reduction in Exports: Over the last month, Russia's exports from Western ports dropped by 630,000 b/d due to production cuts announced by the Russian government and coinciding with unilateral production reductions from Saudi Arabia. This has resulted in higher oil prices above the price cap, making Russian oil less competitive in China and India.

7. Impact on Shipowners: The reduction in exports may lead to lower employment opportunities for shipowners. Some Greek-owned vessels previously involved in the Russian trade are now seeking alternative employment, but it's unclear if this is due to fewer Russian cargoes available or concerns about breaching sanctions.

8. Limited Options for "Dark Fleet": The "dark fleet" engaged in Russian trades has limited options, with Russia, Iran, and Venezuela being the main destinations due to sanctions and restrictions. Western owners, on the other hand, can explore alternative markets.

The full article is available on request

Dawn-to-dusk imagery collection reveals rapid pace of construction for China’s second off-shore strategic naval port

A post by BlackSky

HERNDON, Va. (July 24, 2023) — BlackSky released a ten-image collection captured over Ream, Cambodia, showing the rapid pace of development of a large Chinese military naval station from August 2021 until July 2023. The high-resolution, electro-optical images are part of a collection of more than 520 images captured from October 2019 until now and contains time-diverse imagery taken as early as 8 a.m., and as late as 7:58 p.m., Indochina Time.

“BlackSky’s unique ability to capture and quickly deliver large volumes of dawn-to-dusk, time-diverse imagery increases transparency into strategic military and economic activities that otherwise would have gone unnoticed,” said Brian E. O’Toole, BlackSky CEO. “Our commercial high-frequency monitoring satellite constellation and AI-driven tasking and analytics platform gives our customers the on-demand ability to observe critical change over time.

“The speed of development at the Ream base makes it difficult to deny the intentional velocity behind China’s overseas basing initiatives,” said Craig Singleton, China Program deputy director and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Cambodia’s receptivity to hosting China’s second overseas naval port increases Beijing’s strategic ability to project military power into the Indian Ocean.”

“There is a near-exact similarity between an angled deep-water pier located on the western shore of the Ream base and another military pier at the People’s Liberation Army Support Base in Djibouti. Both main piers are 363 meters long and large enough to support any ship in China’s naval arsenal, including the new 300-meter-long Type 003 Fujian aircraft carrier,” Singleton said.

Third-party analysts have also observed the development of a thirty-eight thousand square meter artificial peninsula on the southern shore of the base and many architecturally distinct Cambodian and Chinese military buildings, including an alleged headquarters facility, barracks and fuel storage areas.

BlackSky’s high-resolution constellation can capture imagery on an hourly basis up to 15 times per day. This unique ability to gather images from dawn until dusk is possible because BlackSky’s constellation flies predominantly in inclined orbits, horizontally oriented around the equator. Traditional satellite imagery providers are limited to capturing images between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. because they fly in sun synchronous polar orbits.

The original high resolution, ten-image collection is available upon request.

Russian Crude Market Update

A post by Vortexa

Northern Sea Route currently in use for voyages Baltic-to-China could be a viable option if ice class tonnage available

Two Russian-controlled Aframaxes are currently in transit to China via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) after loading Urals in Russia.

According to Vortexa sea surface temperature data, the vessels have transited towards warmer patches (darker blue) where there is less ice.

Before this voyage, both vessels have lifted Urals post-ban.

• PRIMORSKY PROSPECT lifted Urals from Russia four times, and all cargoes have ultimately ended up in India (3 liftings were discharged via Kalamata STS).

• NS ARCTIC lifted Urals from Russia twice, transiting directly Primorsk-to-China

Currently it is more economical to send crude to Asia via the Black Sea instead of the Baltic, but there is limited capacity for redirecting volumes.

• Additionally, climate change and the significant reduction in ice in the Arctic makes the NSR to China more viable and could see activity on the route increase.

• However, the NSR is limited by ice class tonnage availability

Vortexa launch new Market innovation series

Welcome to Vortexa Innovation Series 2023!

🚢 Embark on a voyage through the innovations shaping the future of the energy markets! 🚢

📅 Save the Date:

🇬🇧 London, September 14

🇺🇸 NYC, September 20

🇺🇸 Houston, September 21

🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi, October 3

🇸🇬 Singapore, October 12

🔋 Join us for an immersive event, where we'll uncover the latest trends, breakthrough technologies and solutions shaping the energy industry.

📚 Gain invaluable insights from industry experts.

🤝 Network with professionals and energy enthusiasts.

⚡Gain competitive advantage by equipping yourself with the tools and insights needed to stay ahead in the rapidly evolving energy markets.

Secure your spot now for Vortexa Innovation Series 2023! Registration is open at https://bit.ly/3rTQnJR

Tracking iron ore: focus on supply from Western Australia

A post by Maritrace 

As the sun rises on the second half of 2023, global inflation appears to be easing, though it may be too soon to predict when national economies can expect to experience real recovery from the long-run effects of the pandemic and war in Ukraine. Commodity movements are indicators for the recovery: among them, iron ore is critical for infrastructure development, particularly in Asia. Globally, the supply of iron ore was constrained in the first quarter of 2023 by adverse weather conditions in Brazil in January, elevated export tariffs in India and decreased exports from Ukraine during 2022. Australia – the world’s second largest supplier of seaborne iron ore after Brazil – supplied approximately 880 million tonnes in 2022, mostly to China. Transit times of approximately 12 days (compared with 45 from Brazil), make Australia an attractive supplier for importers of iron ore on China’s eastern coast. Illustrative of the importance of continuous stable supply, Australia’s iron ore was not among the commodities targeted by China’s trade restrictions that affected other sectors in the three years from 2020 to 2022.

Rio Tinto, an Anglo-Australian metals and mining company, is the world’s second-largest producer of iron ore, extracting and shipping five iron ore products from 16 mines in Western Australia. In March 2023 Rio Tinto’s share of iron ore shipments from Western Australia achieved a three-month high, largely due to a prolonged spell of dry weather inland. Iron ore shipments by Rio Tinto were approximately 163 million tonnes in H1 2023 (compared with 154.3 m tonnes in the same period for 2022), of which 71.3 m tonnes were shipped from the Port of Dampier (approximately a 10% YoY increase) and 91.8 m tonnes at Port Walcott.

Iron ore prices are expected to average around US$100 / tonne throughout 2023, due in part to subdued demand for steel and expectations around how rapidly China’s economy can recover to ‘business as usual’. Analysts seeking finer granularity in estimating prices (and understanding the factors that may threaten price stability) must navigate a host of other factors: in the case of iron ore, onshore logistics issues, weather conditions and incidents at mining operations, seaborne iron ore trade can also be affected by port maintenance issues and delays, adverse weather conditions in the major shipping lanes connecting Australia with Asia, availability of port operations staff and variations in the capesize index. China’s iron ore stockpiles typically decrease after March each year as construction work in China picks up again following the winter period: in February 2023 analysts anticipated that the rate and pace of new construction in China may increase through 2023, as China continues to recover from post-pandemic restrictions. Estimating these inventories and stockpiles requires accurate insight into actual iron ore shipment volumes: MariTrace clients and subscribers can access near real-time data for iron ore shipments - in some cases, well ahead of industry reports.

The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch Ocean Freight Visibility initiative

The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch a joint initiative to support Freight Forwarders and Logistics companies to access leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions 💡

Maritime Data and The Loadstar have teamed up to launch a joint initiative supporting Freight Forwarders and Logistics companies in accessing leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions.

As part of this collaboration, three leading suppliers - GateHouse Maritime, Gnosis Freight, and SeaVantage - are offering exclusive 30-day trial periods.

In the past year, the number of suppliers, features, and benefits in this field has grown exponentially. The goal of this initiative is to provide readers of The Loadstar with a diverse selection of tools, enabling them to understand the potential advantages of each solution and its data.

These Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions aim to provide real-time insights into cargo location, status, and predictive information, empowering logistics professionals to proactively manage disruptions and optimize supply chain operations.

Previously, large multinational businesses enjoyed the benefits of such technologies, automating labor-intensive processes and enhancing customer-facing products. Now, our partners have made these powerful and affordable solutions accessible to Supply Chain companies of all sizes, allowing them to leverage big data and analytics to evolve their businesses.

If you haven't already subscribed to The Loadstar's free-to-read Newsletter, join over 22,500 Supply Chain professionals today: https://theloadstar.com/registration/

For more information on this initiative and how to access a 30-day free trial of the three leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions, visit our dedicated landing page: https://www.maritimedata.ai/visibility-solutions/explore-ocean-visibility-solutions

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