Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The objective of the newsletter is to provide you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the MDAI network.

In this week’s edition:

📣 What’s new!?

• Spire launches AIS position validation solution

💡 Insight

Risk on the Rise: Navigating the 11th Sanctions Package

What is driving the changes in demand in Dry Cargo?

• How is that affecting new ship orders?

• What impact could this have on shipping?

📊 A Poll

The most common challenges with evaluating Big Data in maritime

Spire launches AIS position validation solution

What is it?

AIS Position Validation is an advanced RF signal-based vessel detection and tracking to validate vessels’ positions based on the real time coverage offered by the Spire constellation.

The solution independently calculates a vessel’s location at the time of the AIS transmission (even if AIS messages do not include valid GPS data).

This can be compared to the reported position contained within the AIS messages received from a vessel.

How does it work?

Spire is now processing other signals received as a part of AIS message known as Doppler Frequency Shift.

Providing they receive enough of these signals at a high enough frequency, this data can become a reliable indicator of a vessels position.

They are currently processing data for between 15-20% of the world fleet.

Approx. 80% validated calculated positions lie within ~40 nm from their AIS reported positions.

How can this be used?

The use cases that come to mind are Maritime Compliance & Maritime Domain awareness.

If you’re a previous reader of this newsletter, you’ll know we’ve been talking about the rising issues related to “Dark Shipping” or “Deceptive Shipping Practices” for some time.

By having an alternative source of vessel tracking data to AIS and one that cannot be manually interfered with, users may be able to analyse the deltas between the two feeds and more easily identify spoofing.

At a minimum, we see this as a potentially great complementary feed to add to existing dark vessel detection methods.

How is it delivered?

2 delivery methods

• Summary view

Provides the latest vessel position, static and voyage information associated with given target (MMSI), and summary information, i.e., latest validated and positional anomaly events, and associated counts and timestamps.

• Detailed view

Provides full information on detected events for target (MMSI), i.e., event type, associated reported and estimated positions, and relative distances in kilometers between estimated and reported positions.

Risk on the Rise: Navigating the 11th Sanctions Package

Windward produced a fantastic webinar whereby their pannel of experts discussed the implications of the latest sanctions, how stakeholders in the maritime industry can move from policy to practice, and more.

Speakers:

• Olga Dimitrescu, Head of Engagement at OFSI, HM Treasury

• Eva Monard, International Trade Partner at Steptoe & Johnson

• Simon Ring, Senior Commercial Director, Windward

• Dror Salzman, Product Manager, Windward

Our highlights:

This new package is a game changer in the sense this is the first time we’ve seen detailed prescriptive guidance with wide ranging cause and effect, bringing in more actors and stakeholders in the maritime ecosystem.

The 11th package is really about fighting the circumvention of what is already in place.

This behavior is clear by looking at trade statistics and the rise in STS and AIS spoofing.

90k port calls last year in the EU and 14% were made by Russia affiliated vessels.

In the last 2 years there have been 30k dark activities related to sanctions evasions.

In Q2 there was a 75% increase in dark activities by tanker vessels following a port call in Russia and a 140% increase in dark activities in the Black Sea.

880,000 signal losses and only 0.8% were related to sanction evasions.

Deceptive Shipping Practices are changing.

The amount of events are growing as well as the type of manipulation event is changing

What does it mean for stakeholders in the maritime industry?

A thorough due diligence process is required primarily to avoid violations but also to demonstrate to the regulators that you took all reasonable steps in the event of a breach.

The EU commission will be working with all member states to support with their own resources + facilitate the exchange of information between ports.

New export restrictions will have a severe impact on the supply chain.

What is driving the changes in demand in Dry Cargo?

A post by Tradeviews, a specialist research and advisory business focused on the analysis of Maritime Trade Data.

Note: These bullet points summarize the forecasts and developments mentioned in the original report, available on request.

Steel Industry:

• OECD estimates steelmaking capacity additions in 2023-2025 to total 166 million tonnes, leading to increased demand for 196 million tonnes of iron ore, 94 million tonnes of coking coal, and 58 million tonnes of scrap.

• Capacity additions are concentrated in Asia, with blast furnaces accounting for 55%.

• Concerns exist about excess capacity being pushed into world markets due to capacity additions in regions with stagnant or declining demand.

• Europe is gradually replacing blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces and DRI projects alongside.

Power Coal:

• China's raw coal production in May 2023 increased by 4.2% YoY.

• India's domestic coal output in May 2023 rose by 7.1% YoY.

• India extends the timeline for power plants operating on imported coal to run at full capacity until the end of September due to a severe heatwave.

• Italy may shut down its coal-fired power stations in 2024 if gas prices remain low.

• Philippines' Semirara Mining diversifies coal exports to Japan and reduces reliance on China.

Aluminium Industry:

• Global primary aluminium production in May 2023 increased by 0.6% YoY, with China accounting for 59%.

• Global alumina production rose to 11.918 million tonnes in May, up 1% MoM in terms of average daily output.

• Rio Tinto plans to expand its "low-carbon" aluminium smelter in Quebec, Canada.

Agribulk:

• USDA forecasts minor adjustments to 2022/23 export trade forecasts for wheat and coarse grains.

• Weather patterns, including El Nino, threaten agricultural producers across Asia.

• Australia's winter crop production is predicted to decline due to the El Nino weather pattern.

• EU to phase out temporary restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed.

• Flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine affects agriculture.

Fertilisers:

• Angola's Cabinda Phosphate Fertiliser Plant will be constructed, fed by output from the Cacata Phosphate mine.

• NeuRizer advances plans for a 1 million tonne/year urea plant in South Australia.

• Bangladesh imports 180,000 tons of muriate of potash from Russia.

• OCP plans to invest $7 billion in an ammonia plant in Morocco using green hydrogen.

• Koch Fertilizer revamps its Fort Dodge plant in Iowa, increasing ammonia production capacity.

Forest Products:

• Australia resumes softwood log exports to China after the ban due to bark beetle infestation.

• Canada experiences a severe spring wildfire season, impacting sawmills and raising lumber prices.

• German sawmill industry reports poor business conditions and significant production reductions.

• New Zealand strengthens forestry cooperation with China.

• Viet Nam's wood exports decline due to falling demand in major markets.

Cement Industry:

• Argentina's cement market contracts by 1.5% YoY in May 2023.

• Brazil's cement market grows by 1.2% YoY in May 2023.

• New cement plants commence production in Cambodia, Laos, and Ethiopia.

• CMS Cement plans to expand clinker capacity in Malaysia.

• BUA Cement secures loans to construct two new cement plants in Nigeria.

• Heidelberg inaugurates a new cement plant in Indiana, USA.

How might this affect the Ship Building Markets?

We go back to a previous post by Christopher Palsson of Maritime-Insight

The relatively low dry bulk carrier fleet age gives a continued modest dwt removal forecast for 2023-2027. In dwt the total will be 44M dwt, plus 10%, whereof 14M dwt in 2027 alone. Given the many old smaller ships in the fleet the increase will be higher in numbers. Looking further ahead, all the ships delivered in 2009 and onwards will be on schedule for removals and thus the total removals will increase dramatically towards the end of this decade. This will impact the ordering of new ships.

In 2018-2022 the dry bulker fleet grew by 3.3% yearly measured in dwt capacity. The forecast for fleet growth in 2023-2027 stands at 3.2% yearly. The fastest growing segment will be the 60’-100’dwt segment (largely Ultramax, Panamax & Kamsarmax) with a yearly growth of 4.7% in average.

You can view the full post here:

https://maritimedata.beehiiv.com/p/maritime-data-newsletter-3

What impact could this have on Shipping?

1. Dry Bulk Shipping: The increased demand for iron ore, coking coal, and scrap in the steel industry may lead to higher volumes of dry bulk shipments 📈

2. Shift in Trade Patterns: The diversification of coking coal sourcing by India or resumption of log exports from Australia to China, could result in shifts in trade patterns 🔄

3. Regional Impact: Capacity additions in the steel industry, particularly in Asia, may increase intra-regional trade within Asia. This could impact the demand for vessels in other regions 🌍

4. Environmental Considerations: The focus on decarbonization and green initiatives in the steel and cement industries may drive the demand for cleaner shipping options, such as vessels powered by alternative fuels ♻️

5. Weather-Related Challenges: Weather patterns, such as the El Nino climate pattern, may impact agricultural production and subsequently affect the shipping of agribulk commodities 🌦️

Note: This is commentary by Maritimedata.ai 

The 3 most common challenges with evaluating big data in maritime

Probably the most common challenge we discuss with users and buyers of maritime data services is the time, effort and resource is takes to evaluate the range of available solutions, of which nowadays there are many.

From having the right people with the right skills to the cost of operational disruptions, we tried capture the 3 most common challenges we hear from the MDAI network:

1. Access to Skilled Personnel 

In an industry with an aggressive push for digitisation, competition for skills is commensurately high. Good Analysts and Data Scientists are expensive, and will often have a wide remit of responsibilities, including the evaluation of existing and new datasets.

Some Maritime Data such as Vessel and Ownership Data require deep industry expertise to understand the important nuances in a suppliers approach, as contrary to popular belief, we still haven’t agreed what ship is what.

If a business doesn’t have the sort of skilled personnel needed to conduct thorough and extensive evaluations, purchasing decisions are tough to make and the risk of a misplaced investment increases.

In our experience, this creates a barrier to entry for small/medium size organisations looking to utilize big data and analytics.

2. Opportunity Costs

Should a buyer have access to skilled personnel then the question becomes the cost of redeploying them.

If all of your analytical resources are tied up on important projects, it’s likely that the assessment of your incumbent service/solution get’s delayed until the following year and your existing contract(s) renewed. Understandable.

The opportunity costs then extend to those incurred by not optimizing your solution providers.

3. Processing power 

Talent is not the only factor in evaluating data services. A company’s access to compute power and availability also has a huge impact on a businesses ability to conduct thorough testing.

Maritime Data can be big and tricky.

Some vessel tracking data providers produce north of 300m positions a day and can require an enormous amount of work to process prior to being ready for compassion.

Organisations without the either take longer to assess, or choose to narrow down the shortlist before making a true assessment of the data quality.  

📊 The Poll

So what’s the solution?

We’re still working on that, but maybe something like this?

The general idea being that a tool designed to analyse the bigger and trickier datasets, allowing users to compare and contrast services by different criteria could be useful?

If that sounds interesting and something you would like to be involved in at an early stage, let us know by clicking the link below to our Beta Program:

If you’re interested in learning more about the solutions mentioned in this newsletter or other data and analytics products, there are 2 ways we can help:

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Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

[email protected]