Baltimore's Big Impact 🌉 Learning to Live with Sanctions 🌍 Fresh Low in Red Sea Vessel Activity 🚢 Higher Gas Prices Drive Demand for Seaborne Coal 🔥

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Insights 📈

Oil 🛢️

• Relentless Regulations (Link)

• Almost all VLCCs have travelled the longer distance via the Cape (Link)

• Canada Opens the Floodgates (Link)

Dry 🚢

• China reduced its intake of Russian coal during the first quarter of the year, while Australia saw a surge in its export volume (Link)

• Higher European natural gas prices have increased the demand for seaborne transportation of coal to the continent’s ports (Link)

• Global iron ore flows by fleet (Link)

Baltimore Key Bridge Collapse 🌉

• Baltimore’s Big Impact: 24-Day Delay (Link)

• Marine insurers face billion-dollar payout on Baltimore bridge collapse (Link)

• Vessels Rerouting Following Bridge Collapse in Baltimore (Link)

Other 🌍

• Ship tracking in high risk areas: time for an upgrade (Link)

• Red sea update: Fresh low in Red Sea vessel activity as Mediterranean port calls fall sharply (Link)

• Sugar Export Boom: TCP Achieves 368% Increase in Early 2024 Shipments (Link)

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Learning to live with sanctions: Russian oil flows in the face of sanctions - Kpler

This is a summary created by Maritime Data from Kpler's recent special report: Learning to live with sanctions.

The landscape of Russian oil flows underwent a transformative shift in 2023, aligning with the introduction of the price cap, which redirected Russian crude oil predominantly towards Asia. The cessation of purchases by European countries paved the way for India to emerge as a leading buyer of Urals, with its intake increasing twelvefold from 2021 to 2022 and further soaring in 2023.

In a record-breaking year, Russia's seaborne flows expanded by 4%, averaging 3.504 million barrels per day (Mbd), marking the second highest pace after 2019. India's monumental rise as a purchaser was underscored by acquiring a variety of Russian crude grades, with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) leading the charge. China remained a steadfast consumer, bolstered by pipeline deliveries and a notable 35% year-over-year increase in seaborne supplies.

Europe's diminishing role was highlighted by Bulgaria's transition away from Russian crude in early 2024, impacting the overall European intake. Exploration into new markets revealed Russia's engagement with countries like Indonesia, Pakistan, and Brazil, diversifying its export destinations.

Pipeline exports witnessed a decline, particularly through the Transneft system, with a 30% year-over-year drop to 1.1 Mbd. This reduction was partly compensated by increased interest from Central Asian nations, notably Uzbekistan, which saw a tripling of Russian oil imports in 2024.

Product flows were characterized by diesel/gasoil remaining the largest export stream, with Turkey and Brazil emerging as significant importers in the wake of the European Union's sanctions. Fuel oil exports shifted towards China and India, indicating a trend towards more sophisticated refining capabilities in these markets.

Overall, the year 2023 represented a pivotal period for Russian oil flows, characterized by adaptation to sanctions, exploration of new markets, and strategic redirection towards Asia. This shift not only reflects Russia's resilience but also the dynamic nature of global oil markets.

The Restricted Panama Canal’s Effect on Global Trade - Windward

The ecological disaster caused by the sinking of the Rubymar is far from the only event affecting maritime trade. Since August, the drying Panama Canal, a vital Atlantic-Pacific shortcut, cannot accommodate the $270 billion worth of cargo that flows through it annually. This has led to significant changes in shipping patterns and vessel activity, as analyzed by Windward’s AI-driven technology.

Windward’s analysis highlights a dramatic shift in maritime traffic over the past two years:

• Container vessels and bulk carriers: both container vessels and bulk carriers have hit record lows in terms of the number of area visits. There has been a 30% decrease in area visits by container vessels owned by the six major carriers – COSCO, CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and ONE – and a 51% decrease for bulk carriers. January 2024 marks the lowest number of area visits by container vessels and bulk carriers in the past two years.

• Oil product tankers: in stark contrast, oil product tankers have seen a 39% increase in area visits, suggesting a shift in the types of vessels navigating through the altered maritime landscape caused by the canal’s restrictions.

There are three potential reasons for the discrepancy between tankers vs. container ships and bulk carriers:

1. Tankers are lighter than container ships and bulk carriers

2. Tankers are generally smaller, with mid-sized vessels like Suezmax averaging around 275 meters in length, compared to large container ships, such as the New Panamax at 366 meters

3. The Biden administration’s removal of a broad array of sanctions against Venezuela’s oil and gas sector

For a comprehensive analysis of the restricted Panama Canal’s impact on global trade, read their full report.

For more insights on the impact of the disruptive environment on global trade:

Crude tanker mileage declined in February due to less VLCC voyages East Coast Americas to NE Asia - Vortexa

Average laden completed voyage mileage for the main crude tanker classes (Aframax, Suezmax, VLCC) declined 4.2% m-o-m in February.

➔ VLCCs average mileage declined 7.1% m-o-m, while Aframax and Suezmax mileage remained relatively flat m-o-m

VLCC global mileage declined as a result of less cargoes originating in the East Coast Americas (USG and East Coast South America) arriving in Wider NE Asia in February, a voyage count decrease of 35% m-o-m.

➔ NE Asia sourcing less crude from the Americas is likely to continue, as lower than expected Saudi crude OSPs in March and April may prove attractive to Chinese buyers.

For Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, average mileage for Russian crude voyages increased 8.3% m-o-m, partially driven by more voyages from Baltic/Black Sea ports to China.

➔ However, moving forward, signs of lower employment for the fleet trading Russian crude will likely affect global laden mileage for the vessel classes

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